Listen below for an succinct overview in podcast format of all items contained in this issue of the newsletter.
news
I used Google NotebookLM and Gemini to summarize the information in this week’s news links:
💰 Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative digital currency to a cornerstone of the global financial system, increasingly viewed as "digital gold" due to its provably scarce nature and institutional adoption. On-chain velocity is at historic lows, with over 70% of Bitcoin unmoved for over a year, reflecting a shift toward long-term holding, particularly by institutions like MicroStrategy and Tesla, which treat it as a strategic reserve. The 2024 launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has driven institutional holdings to approximately 12.8% of circulating supply, locking up coins in cold storage and reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity-driven value proposition. Meanwhile, off-chain activity thrives through Layer-2 solutions like the Lightning Network, with a 400% capacity increase since 2020, and Wrapped Bitcoin, which grew 34% in 2025, fueling decentralized finance (DeFi) and payment systems.
🔒 Bitcoin’s design prioritizes security and decentralization over scalability, as outlined in the blockchain trilemma, making it the most secure digital asset with a hash rate that deters 51% attacks. Its fixed 21-million-coin supply and halving events, like the one in April 2024, historically drive price surges, with analysts predicting a cycle peak of $130,000–$200,000 by October 2025. However, scalability remains a challenge, with Bitcoin processing only 3–7 transactions per second compared to Visa’s 9,000, pushing innovation to off-chain solutions. The macroeconomic environment, characterized by currency debasement and geopolitical tensions, bolsters Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against inflation, with countries like China and Russia exploring neutral reserve assets, and the US embracing Bitcoin through a strategic reserve initiative under President Trump.
🏢 Corporate adoption is accelerating, with companies like MicroStrategy holding 628,791 BTC and introducing innovative financial products like "Stretch," a Bitcoin-backed perpetual stablecoin offering 9% yield. New metrics like “Bitcoin per share” reflect a shift toward valuing wealth in Bitcoin terms amid fiat debasement concerns. Regulatory landscapes are evolving, with the US moving from a hostile stance to bipartisan support, exemplified by the Genius Act for stablecoins and proposed Clarity Act. Despite risks like regulatory hurdles and potential code vulnerabilities, Bitcoin’s resilience, liquidity, and growing integration into e-commerce (e.g., via Coinbase’s partnership with Shopify) signal its potential to reshape finance, prioritizing economic freedom and property rights in an increasingly uncertain global economy.
STRENGTHENING AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN DIGITAL FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY
Summary: This report, "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology," outlines the Trump Administration's strategy to foster responsible growth in digital assets and blockchain technology, aiming for U.S. global leadership. It proposes policies to protect individual digital asset ownership, clarify market regulation for deeper liquidity, encourage bank engagement without restrictive practices, promote U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins while prohibiting central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), enhance tools to combat illicit finance, and modernize digital asset taxation. The core objective is to position the U.S. as the "crypto capital of the world" by embracing innovation and establishing clear regulatory frameworks.
Link: https://www.whitehouse.gov/crypto/
Fidelity Digitial Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) - An overview of Bitcoin and its potential use cases.
Summary: The blockchain trilemma states Bitcoin prioritizes decentralization and security over scalability, leading to strong resistance against attacks but slower transaction speeds. The report positions Bitcoin as a macroeconomic hedge and a competitor to gold, driven by its scarcity from halving events and network effects. It concludes by outlining future scenarios for Bitcoin and potential risks like technical vulnerabilities and regulatory issues.
Link: https://fwc.widen.net/s/kz8ddvftg5/fda-bitcoin-coin-report---12-06
Are Miners Front-Running the Next Bitcoin Price Rally?
Summary: This article explores the possibility of Bitcoin miners "front-running" the next price rally, citing several indicators. It highlights a rare "buy" signal from hash ribbons, which historically precedes significant Bitcoin price increases, emerging after a period of miner capitulation due to factors like rising electricity costs. The article also notes a rebound in Bitcoin miner profitability, as indicated by The Puell Multiple, and points out that Bitcoin mining stocks are outperforming Bitcoin, suggesting investor confidence. These combined factors – the hash ribbons buy signal, improving profitability, and sustained hashrate growth – indicate a renewed bullish outlook among miners for the Bitcoin market.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-miners-front-running-next-rally
Strategy Acquires 21,021 BTC and Now Holds 628,791 BTC
Summary: This article reports that Strategy recently acquired an additional 21,021 BTC, increasing its total Bitcoin holdings to 628,791 BTC. This acquisition was announced in a Form 8-K filing on July 29, 2025. The article also includes details about the company's website cookie policy, explaining their use for site navigation, performance analysis, and marketing, and offering users options to manage their cookie preferences.
Link: https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-acquires-21021-btc-and-now-holds-628791-btc_07-29-2025
Bitcoin “tick tock” fractal predicts $150K BTC price top in October.
Summary: This article from Cointelegraph, published on July 31, 2025, suggests that Bitcoin could reach a bull cycle top of $150,000 by October, based on historical halving-cycle fractals. Analyst CryptoBullet's "tick-tock" fractal predicts Bitcoin peaks around 518-546 days after each halving, aligning the next potential top with October 2025. On-chain data, including increasing new investor activity and strong absorption from institutions and ETFs, supports this bullish outlook, indicating the market has room for further growth before becoming overheated.
Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tick-tock-fractal-predicts-150k-btc-price-top-october
What Bitcoin's Velocity Says About Its Future.
Summary: Bitcoin's low on-chain velocity signals its maturation as a long-term asset and digital gold, rather than declining use. This shift is driven by institutional adoption and increasing off-chain activity (like Lightning Network and Wrapped Bitcoin), which aren't captured by traditional metrics. While impacting miner fees, this evolution suggests Bitcoin's utility is expanding across new layers, serving more as a foundational asset than a transactional currency.
Link: https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2025/08/01/what-bitcoin-s-velocity-says-about-its-future
media
Bloomberg. Mallers Piles Into Bitcoin Ahead of Public Listing.
Summary: This video discusses 21's strategy to increase its Bitcoin holdings, aiming to become a top corporate holder by accumulating over 43,000 Bitcoin. The company introduces "Bitcoin Per Share (BPS)" as a key performance metric, emphasizing growth in Bitcoin terms over dollar terms due to fiat currency debasement. 21's endgame strategy involves not only acquiring Bitcoin but also building Bitcoin products and technology, positioning themselves as competitors in the crypto space. The speaker highlights Bitcoin's fixed supply, its role as a pristine store of value, and its fundamental use case for preserving value against inflation.
Podcast. The Shawn Ryan Show: Brian Armstrong - Mining 21 Million Bitcoins, Satoshi Nakamoto and Elizabeth Warren | SRS #222.
Summary: This video features Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, discussing his early interest in programming, his experience with hyperinflation in Argentina that highlighted Bitcoin's potential, and his discovery of the Bitcoin white paper in 2010. He emphasizes Bitcoin's security and discusses the history of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar. Armstrong also offers advice to entrepreneurs, encouraging action and embracing the unknown, and suggests future guests for the show.
Podcast. Risk Reversal: Brian Kelly on AI Overbuild & Wall Street's Embrace of Bitcoin.
Summary: This video is a special edition of the "Risk Reversal Podcast" featuring Brian Kelly, a "Bitcoin baller." Kelly expresses macroeconomic concerns, particularly about the Chinese yuan and rising Japanese bond yields, and their potential impact on US assets. He discusses Bitcoin's evolution, noting the increased institutional involvement and its growing correlation with traditional markets. Kelly believes Bitcoin should be considered a competitor to gold, with a potential market cap of $15 trillion, and views it as the "most important innovation in the last 600 years of financial history."
Podcast. What Bitcoin Did: Metaplanet, Strategy, and the Corporate Bitcoin Race | Dylan LeClair.
Summary: In this video, Dylan LeClair discusses the increasing corporate adoption of Bitcoin, highlighting a "gradually then suddenly" inflection point as around 200 companies, including MetaPlanet, are now acquiring Bitcoin for their treasuries. He emphasizes that the public capital markets embracing Bitcoin is crucial for its widespread adoption, alongside the cypherpunk vision. A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the concept of "premium to Net Asset Value (NAV)" for Bitcoin treasury companies, noting that maintaining a high premium requires substantial liquidity. LeClair also details MicroStrategy's "Stretch" product, describing it as a "neo stablecoin" backed by Bitcoin that allows MSTR to access large pools of capital in fixed-income markets.
Podcast. The Jack Mallers Show: Our Parents Are Fighting. The Empire Is Cracking. Bitcoin Doesn’t Care. (EP 75).
Summary: In this episode of "The Jack Mallers Show," titled "Our parents are fighting. The empire is cracking. Bitcoin doesn’t care," Jack Mallers provides updates on his businesses, Strike and 21, including Strike's new virtual accounts and lending expansion, and 21 Capital Inc.'s SEC filing to go public. He then delves into a macroeconomic discussion, likening the public disagreements among U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve officials to "parents fighting," signaling instability and a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy towards a weaker dollar. Mallers also discusses the impact of AI on the U.S. economy and highlights Bitcoin's resilience, noting the market's absorption of a large Bitcoin sale with minimal impact.
Coindesk. Tom Lee Predicts $250K Bitcoin & $15K Ethereum - Here's Why.
Summary: This video features an interview with Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and Chairman of Bitwise. He discusses his bullish outlook on Ethereum, predicting it could reach $15,000, and explains why he calls the recent market rebound the "most hated V-shape bounce." Lee also shares his positive outlook on Bitcoin, forecasting a potential rise to $200,000 to $250,000, contingent on global liquidity and Federal Reserve policies. Finally, he touches on Bitwise's $1 billion stock buyback program and the mid-cycle status of crypto equities.
Podcast. What Bitcoin Did: Why This Bitcoin Bull Market Is Different | Checkmate.
Summary: In this video, Checkmate provides a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, noting the significant unrealized profit in the system and the "realized cap" crossing a trillion dollars, indicating substantial wealth stored in Bitcoin. He discusses the market's strong absorption of a recent 80,000 Bitcoin sale, highlighting that institutional-sized money is now primarily driving network usage rather than retail investors. Checkmate also analyzes bull market corrections, observing that current drawdowns are shallower and longer than in previous cycles, and offers a nuanced view on Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy. He suggests a potential Bitcoin price range for the end of the year, noting that prices reaching $160K-$180K would put Bitcoin in "thin air."
tweets
(Substack blocking direct Twitter links at the moment)
https://x.com/balajis/status/1949403245811822628
https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1949442317426835483
https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1949444156138705403
https://x.com/DrProfitCrypto/status/1949590190365745411
https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1949693791906214349
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1949806321953337424
https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1949925168630886775
https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/1950533282233520479
https://x.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1950558790379503862
https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/1950628726020165895
https://x.com/MacroScope17/status/1950689846751834163
https://x.com/FrankAFetter/status/1950903213948846279
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1950959125359141067
https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1951274561485283796
https://x.com/therationalroot/status/1951395068050379187
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1951648671465881902
https://x.com/decodejar/status/1950527307518820750
https://x.com/adam3us/status/1951680940264001752
https://x.com/therationalroot/status/1948128846865211520
https://x.com/glassnode/status/1950500869411058108
https://x.com/BigCheds/status/1951990823798690272
https://x.com/mikealfred/status/1951993201524666442
https://x.com/52kskew/status/1951725353065660752
If you think we’ve missed something important, please send it to us and we’ll be sure to add it to next week’s newsletter… And please share!
