issue 257 - week of 9-12-25
curating the good stuff for the casual bitcoin enthusiast each week
Listen below for an succinct overview in podcast format of all items contained in this issue of the newsletter.
news
I used Google NotebookLM and Gemini to summarize the information in this week’s news links:
📈 Bitcoin has undergone a significant transformation, evolving from a speculative asset to a recognized form of "digital capital," as highlighted by Michael Saylor, with institutional adoption surging as evidenced by the increase in publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin from 60 to 180 in a year, with projections of reaching 700. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, described as the most successful in Wall Street history, hold 1.5 million Bitcoin and serve as critical entry points for large capital pools, including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, while governments are shifting toward a more favorable stance, with some embracing Bitcoin and stablecoins as strategic assets. This institutional and governmental acceptance is driven by Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized nature, positioning it as a hedge against fiat currency debasement and a potential "digital gold," with figures like Tyler Winklevoss comparing it to "gold 2.0."
🚀 The bullish outlook for Bitcoin is fueled by macroeconomic factors and its unique market dynamics, with price predictions ranging from $200,000 by 2025 (Tom Lee) to $1 million within a decade (Tyler Winklevoss) and even $10 million in seven years (Eric Yakes), supported by anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and global liquidity metrics like M2 money supply and stablecoin supply. Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the "mass movement" behind it, as described by Eric Yakes, create an inelastic supply dynamic that could drive significant price appreciation, further reinforced by a 92.42% correlation with gold prices, solidifying its "digital gold" narrative. However, concerns about market volatility, leverage in Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy, and the risks of rehypothecation in lending platforms highlight the speculative and financial engineering challenges within the ecosystem.
🚧 Despite its potential, Bitcoin faces significant risks and challenges, including the possibility of government nationalization, as warned by Willy Woo, and centralization risks, particularly with custodial ownership by exchanges like Coinbase, which could undermine Bitcoin’s permissionless ethos. Regulatory uncertainties and the potential for a "KYC-only" future threaten Bitcoin’s role as "freedom money," while Dave Collum’s concerns about a "complacency bubble" in traditional markets and distrust in the Federal Reserve underscore the broader economic instability driving Bitcoin’s appeal. Looking ahead, Bitcoin could redefine the financial system, incentivizing long-term thinking and potentially leading to a "free banking" world where stablecoins backed by Bitcoin challenge traditional central banking, though its ultimate trajectory—whether as a geopolitical asset, a neutral global currency, or a controlled store of value—remains uncertain.
“Bottom of the first inning.” Winklevoss twins see bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 in 10 years
Summary: The Winklevoss twins, prominent cryptocurrency investors, predict that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next decade, driven by increasing global adoption and its potential to rival gold as a store of value. They argue that Bitcoin's fixed supply and decentralized nature make it an attractive hedge against inflation and government-controlled currencies. The twins also highlight the growing institutional interest and infrastructure development in the crypto space as key catalysts for this bullish outlook. However, their prediction faces skepticism due to Bitcoin’s volatility and regulatory uncertainties.
Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/12/winklevoss-twins-see-bitcoin-reaching-1000000-in-10-years.html
Bitcoin Could Hit $200K by Year-End Says Fundstrat's Tom Lee.
Summary: Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the year. The primary driver for this forecast is the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which would increase market liquidity and create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The article notes that markets are anticipating at least a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. Lee's prediction is also supported by historical fourth-quarter seasonality, which often sees Bitcoin's price appreciate.
Link: https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-could-hit-dollar200k-by-year-end-says-fundstrats-tom-lee
Parabolic Bitcoin Rally Is Coming—Here’s What to Watch.
Summary: This article suggests that a "parabolic Bitcoin rally" is still possible despite arguments that institutional adoption would lead to more stable market cycles. The author contends that the belief that "this time is different" underestimates the role of human psychology and historical market behavior, noting that even sophisticated investors are susceptible to emotional biases. The article references Bitcoin's tight supply and ETF flows to support its claim, projecting a potential price of over $220,000. It concludes by arguing that the next rally could be more dramatic than previous ones, as historical patterns and Bitcoin's unique dynamics are being overlooked.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/parabolic-bitcoin-rally
Bitcoin trader says ‘Time to pay attention’ to $115K BTC price.
Summary: This article reports on Bitcoin's price movement toward $115,000 ahead of a key Federal Reserve interest rate decision. According to traders like Skew and Rekt Capital, a weekly close above $114,000 is needed to maintain a "bullish" outlook. The market is anticipating a rate cut of at least 0.25%, supported by positive U.S. macro data. This combination of improving economic indicators and looser financial conditions could create a favorable trading environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-trader-time-to-pay-attention-115k-btc-price
These 3 Signals Statistically Predict Bitcoin’s Next Big Move.
Summary: Three key signals can be used to predict Bitcoin's next major price movement: Global Liquidity, stablecoin supply, and the price of gold. The article highlights that stablecoin supply has the strongest correlation with Bitcoin's price, as large minting of stablecoins acts as "dry powder" for investment. It also notes a surprising correlation with the price of gold, where Bitcoin tends to mirror gold's movements after a 10-week lag. The author concludes that while Bitcoin may consolidate in the short term, a continued expansion of stablecoin supply and a breakthrough in gold's price could lead to a powerful year-end rally.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/3-signals-predict-bitcoin-big-move
BlackRock weighs ETF tokenization as JPMorgan flags industry shift: Report.
Summary: BlackRock is exploring the tokenization of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the blockchain, following the success of its spot Bitcoin ETFs. This move is part of a broader trend in traditional finance to adopt tokenization to make financial products more accessible and efficient. The article highlights that tokenized ETFs could be traded outside of normal market hours and used as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. This shift is also driven by the increasing influence of stablecoins and the flow of liquidity into blockchain-based markets.
Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-tokenized-etfs-bitcoin-success
media
Conference. HC Wainwright Keynote: Michael Saylor - Bitcoin Strategy & MSTR STRF STRC STRK STRD.
Summary: In this video, Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, discusses the company's unique business model as a "Bitcoin treasury company." He explains that MicroStrategy acquires Bitcoin and then issues various financial securities against its holdings to generate value for shareholders. Saylor highlights the rapid institutional adoption of Bitcoin, pointing to the success of Bitcoin ETFs as a sign of mainstream acceptance. He also expresses his optimistic view that the crypto industry could grow to a multi-trillion dollar industry in the coming years.
Podcast. Galaxy Brains: Bitcoin Treasury Strategies with Tim Kotzman & Ed Juline.
Summary: This episode features a discussion with guests from Bitcoin Treasuries about the increasing number of companies holding Bitcoin. They explain that the primary risks for these companies come from "tradfi games" like excessive leverage, not from Bitcoin itself. The guests also highlight the importance of transparency for attracting investors and discuss why major corporations have been slow to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, citing "career risk" for executives. The conversation also touches on the declining volatility of Bitcoin. Finally, they promote an upcoming "unconference" in New York to discuss the future of Bitcoin in corporate finance.
CNBC. Gemini co-founders Tyler & Cameron Winklevoss: Bitcoin is gold 2.0, can easily go 10x from here.
Summary: In this CNBC interview, Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss discuss their company's IPO and the future of cryptocurrency. They maintain their belief that Bitcoin is in its "first inning" and could one day reach $1 million, likening it to "gold 2.0." The twins highlight Gemini's credit card, which allows users to earn up to 4% back in crypto on every purchase, as a key differentiator from competitors like Coinbase. They argue that Bitcoin's primary function is as a store of value, not a transactional currency, and its fixed supply is a key strength compared to gold. They also mention that the company has expanded beyond just Bitcoin to support over 100 cryptocurrencies.
Podcast. What Bitcoin Did: The Path to $10 Million Bitcoin | Eric Yakes.
Summary: This episode features an interview with Eric Yakes. The discussion highlights Bitcoin's evolution from a niche investment to a potential "mass movement" and critiques the current centralized financial system, particularly the role of the Federal Reserve. The video also touches on the different groups that have contributed to Bitcoin's rise, such as the "cypherpunks" and "fanatics." Yakes emphasizes that "hyperbitcoinization" is not yet certain and a complete financial system needs to be built around Bitcoin to achieve it. The video also includes a sponsor message for a service that allows people to mine Bitcoin.
Podcast. Coin Stories: Next Financial Crisis & Whether the State Can Stop Bitcoin with Dave Collum.
Summary: In this video, Natalie Brunell interviews Cornell professor Dave Collum about the current financial system and Bitcoin. Collum expresses his belief that the current financial system is unsustainable due to high valuations and a history of artificial market support. While he acknowledges the benefits of Bitcoin, he is skeptical of its ability to withstand a determined state, citing the government's previous outlawing of gold. He argues that recent inflation has exposed the limits of the government's financial tricks. Finally, Collum advises people to avoid debt and "story assets" and be wary of the "complacency bubble."
Podcast. The Jack Mallers Show: Deficits Don’t Lie & BRICS Don’t Bluff: Here Comes Bitcoin.
Summary: In this video, Jack Mallers discusses the current economic and geopolitical landscape and its implications for Bitcoin. He argues that the U.S. economy is showing cracks and that the government's response of printing money will lead to ballooning deficits. Mallers believes that BRICS nations are leveraging their economic power to challenge the U.S.-led global system and are increasingly using neutral reserve assets like gold and, eventually, Bitcoin. He also states that the Federal Reserve is "captured" and may be forced to let inflation rise to deal with the debt. Ultimately, he presents Bitcoin as the solution to this economic instability, urging viewers to get involved.
Podcast. All in Bitcoin: 015 Inside Willy Woo's Mind: 21 Questions To Decode A Bitcoin Legend Part 1 - All in Bitcoin with CK.
Summary: In this video, Willy Woo, an on-chain analyst, discusses his views on Bitcoin, government, and personal philosophy. Woo believes that Bitcoin's most important function is the "separation of money and state," which he says helps to prevent governments from devaluing currency. He also addresses the widely misunderstood stock-to-flow model, noting that it's a good guide for scarcity but is not infallible. Woo explains his personal financial strategy, which includes maintaining a "runway" of fiat currency to avoid selling Bitcoin during a market downturn. Finally, he shares his view that ETFs and corporate treasuries do not make on-chain analysis less reliable but instead serve as on-ramps for large pools of capital.
tweets
(Substack blocking direct Twitter links at the moment)
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1964663951641469365
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1964684830228033689
https://x.com/BitcoinNews21M/status/1964690164313407604
https://x.com/CryptosR_Us/status/1964715287963451608
https://x.com/coinbureau/status/1964720315440734289
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1964738838418583916
https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1964774115405070742
https://x.com/saylor/status/1965030023343358394
https://x.com/LeomathHeart/status/1965151794025415143
https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1965100481610711044
https://x.com/P3b7_/status/1965094840959410230
https://x.com/BitcoinForCorps/status/1965016471266078868
https://x.com/apsk32/status/1965442155570495594
https://x.com/AltcoinDaily/status/1965490317244989523
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1965399617903755301
https://x.com/Swan/status/1966553795485126666
https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/1966972945802174863
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1967207753237361090
https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1967237943510061514
https://x.com/ChifoiCristian/status/1967156506119290958
https://x.com/seth_fin/status/1966850211055370327
If you think we’ve missed something important, please send it to us and we’ll be sure to add it to next week’s newsletter… And please share!
