issue 259 - week of 9-26-25
curating the good stuff for the casual bitcoin enthusiast each week
news
I used Google NotebookLM and Gemini to summarize the information in this week’s news links:
💻 The current state of Bitcoin is characterized by intense internal developer debate and profound external macroeconomic forces driving financial innovation. Internally, a “civil war” between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Knots centers on whether the network should strictly enforce a monetary-only purpose by filtering what Knots proponents deem “spam,” a move critics argue actively harms scaling solutions like the Lightning Network and mining decentralization. This technical dispute highlights a broader crisis of trust in development stewardship and has led to mempool fragmentation, where different clients see conflicting sets of unconfirmed transactions.
💸 Simultaneously, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory is being dictated by the deteriorating global macroeconomy, particularly the U.S. debt spiral. Analysts contend that the Federal Reserve is being forced toward a “third mandate” of financial repression—maintaining artificially low long-term rates to ensure government solvency, a policy akin to Yield Curve Control (YCC). This monetary debasement is expected to severely devalue the dollar and traditional fixed-income assets, positioning Bitcoin as the primary hedge; indeed, the appointment of an aggressively “dovish” Fed Chair is seen as the “biggest bull catalyst,” with the potential to trigger a “blow-off top” toward a $200,000 to $1 million price target.
📈 This environment is fueling a wave of financialization and market maturation, exemplified by the rise of Bitcoin Treasury Companies like MicroStrategy. These firms utilize convertible debt and perpetual preferred equity to build a “Bitcoin war chest,” effectively disrupting the $300 trillion fixed-income market by offering higher-yield, digitally-backed credit. The introduction of derivatives and consistent capital inflows from these corporate treasuries are absorbing the selling pressure from long-term holders, creating a period of price stability that analysts believe precedes a decisive move toward a $10 trillion market capitalization as the traditional financial system continues its structural breakdown.
Coinbase CEO Says Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million by 2030 — If Banks Don’t Get in the Way.
Summary: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicts that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, provided that policymakers prevent traditional banks from obstructing the crypto industry’s growth. He attributes his optimism to key demand drivers, including increasing regulatory clarity, U.S. government Bitcoin reserves, and wider ETF adoption. Armstrong warns that big banks are actively lobbying against progress, specifically targeting crypto rewards programs that threaten their profitable credit card industry. For Armstrong, this conflict exposes a deeper ideological battle between legacy, closed financial systems and the open, cost-effective infrastructure offered by Bitcoin and stablecoins.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/takes/coinbase-ceo-says-bitcoin-could-hit-1-million-by-2030-if-banks-dont-get-in-the-way
Bitcoin Core vs. Bitcoin Knots: Actions Speak Louder Than Words.
Summary: The debate between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Knots centers on the true purpose of the Bitcoin network, with Knots claiming to champion decentralization and its use as censorship-resistant money. However, critics argue that the actions of Knots supporters, such as the proprietary DATUM protocol developed by the OCEAN mining pool, actually work against mining decentralization. Furthermore, the latest Knots release defaults to filtering essential transactions needed for Layer 2 scaling solutions like Lightning and Citrea, undermining Bitcoin’s growth as a monetary network. This discrepancy between the stated values of Knots proponents and their technical implementation has led to accusations that their software actively works toward the opposite of their proclaimed goals.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-core-vs-bitcoin-knots-actions-speak-louder-than-words
Options and derivatives to take Bitcoin to $10T market cap: Analyst
Summary: Market analyst James Van Straten argues that financial derivatives, such as options contracts, will be the catalyst that drives Bitcoin’s market capitalization to at least $10 trillion. These financial instruments are crucial because they attract large institutional investors and help cushion the market against the high volatility typically associated with digital assets. Evidence for this shift includes the all-time high open interest for BTC futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which indicates a systematic adoption of volatility selling strategies like covered calls. Although reduced volatility may also dampen the extreme price gains, Van Straten views this as a sign of a more mature market structure with deeper liquidity for Bitcoin.
Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/options-derivatives-bitcoin-10t-market-cap
The Real Reason The Bitcoin Price Can’t Go Higher.
Summary: Bitcoin’s price is currently pinned in a tight trading range, lagging behind rallies in equities, gold, and other major commodities since early July. This stability is due to a tug of war between supply and demand, with a limited number of long-term holders (”whales”) realizing profits and transferring large amounts of Bitcoin. However, the selling pressure from these whales is being fully absorbed by steady, growing institutional demand, primarily through Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations. This unusual market equilibrium, where institutional accumulation offsets whale distribution, is keeping the price from collapsing or surging. A major breakout may occur if other asset classes become stretched at their highs, causing capital to rotate into Bitcoin as the next target.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-cant-go-higher
Morgan Stanley to Enable Bitcoin Trading for E*Trade Clients in First Half of 2026.
Summary: Morgan Stanley is planning a major move into the digital asset space by enabling direct spot Bitcoin and crypto trading for its E*Trade retail clients. This service, which will initially include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, is expected to go live in the first half of 2026, leveraging a partnership with infrastructure provider Zerohash for custody and settlement. The initiative is a significant step for a major Wall Street bank, aiming to integrate traditional and digital assets within the same brokerage accounts and signaling a broader industry shift toward mainstream crypto adoption.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/morgan-stanley-to-enable-bitcoin-trading-for-etrade-clients-in-first-half-of-2026
Bitcoin’s “biggest bull catalyst” may be the next Fed chair pick: Novogratz
Summary: Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz argues that the single biggest bull catalyst for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market could be the selection of an exceptionally dovish nominee for the next U.S. Federal Reserve Chair. He suggests that if a new chair implements aggressive, unwarranted rate cuts, it could trigger a “blow-off top” moment, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price to $200,000. Such a dovish stance is generally seen as weakening the U.S. dollar and making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive compared to traditional assets. However, Novogratz also notes this scenario would come at a significant cost, being “really shitty for America,” but believes the market will not fully price in this possibility until the decision is officially announced.
Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-biggest-bull-catalyst-may-be-the-next-fed-chair-pick-novogratz
media
Podcast. Market Disruptors: Bitcoin’s Volatility Explosion Is Near... You Need To Be Ready | Jamie Coutts.
Summary: This interview with Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, details that the market is in the later stages of an elongated bull cycle, with more upside for Bitcoin and other crypto assets likely to extend into the first half of the next year. This extended timeline is attributed to the global liquidity cycle, which is being driven by unprecedented government debt and fiscal dominance. Coutts notes that although Bitcoin’s volatility has been suppressed by institutional maturation, he predicts a “massive volatility expansion” at certain times. The market is now showing a classic pattern of broadening risk, with large-cap smart contract platforms like Ethereum and other altcoins starting to outperform Bitcoin. Finally, Coutts confirms Bitcoin’s position as the emerging global reserve asset due to its monetary characteristics, while predicting a period of “delineation and divergence” for Bitcoin treasury companies as the sector consolidates.
Podcast. Tales from the Crypt: Insider Reveals MicroStrategy’s $300T Bitcoin Master Plan | Jeff Walton.
Summary: This video features Jeff Walton, who recently transitioned from a career in reinsurance capital markets to focusing entirely on the Bitcoin treasury strategy space. He discusses how his new company, Strive, aims to be the “Metaplanet of the United States,” highlighted by its recent cashless, all-stock acquisition of Semilar to boost its “Bitcoin per share” and credit quality. Walton argues that this is still the “digital capital gold rush,” and predicts that every company on the planet will eventually be holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet. He emphasizes MicroStrategy’s role as a pioneer in creating financial innovation, specifically with its perpetual preferred equities like STRC, which functions like an alternative high-yield savings account. Ultimately, Walton believes that these highly liquid and better-collateralized Bitcoin-backed credit products will disrupt the $300 trillion fixed-income market by offering superior risk and return metrics.
Podcast. What Bitcoin Did: Bitcoin’s Civil War: Core vs. Knots | Samson Mow.
Summary: This video features Samson Mow discussing the escalating “civil war” in the Bitcoin community between the Bitcoin Core developers and the Knots client faction, primarily over the network’s purpose and technical standards. At the core of the disagreement is the issue of “spam” and what constitutes acceptable data on the blockchain, with Knots advocating for strict filtering of non-monetary data while Core has removed certain default limits like the op_return size, which the host notes is intended to encourage a less-harmful way of adding data. Mow highlights the “massive amount of mistrust” in Bitcoin Core, stemming from the perception that it has rewritten documentation to avoid fixing what was identified as a bug that allowed protocols like Ordinals to bypass data limits. As a result, many users, including Mow, are choosing to stick with older Core versions (like 29) or switch to the more conservative Knots implementation, which is already causing mempool fragmentation. The conversation concludes by framing the conflict as a deeper ideological divide over whether Bitcoin should be exclusively “money” or also for “data transmission and storage,” while also expressing optimism about the coming rapid adoption of Bitcoin by nation-states.
Podcast. Magsplaining: Preston Pysh on Rethinking “Risk-Free” and Bitcoin vs Credit and Capital Markets.
Summary: In this discussion, Preston Pysh, co-founder of the Investors Podcast Network and General Partner at Ego Death Capital, explains his Bitcoin-only investment thesis and critiques traditional financial metrics. He argues that the conventional “risk-free rate of return,” defined by instruments like the 10-year Treasury, is fundamentally flawed because it fails to account for currency debasement and inflation, which he equates to financial theft. Pysh asserts that for a serious investor, Bitcoin itself has become the true hurdle rate, estimating its long-term annualized returns to be between 30% and 50%. He emphasizes that this monetary breakdown is leading to the unraveling of the fixed-income market, which is signaled by long-duration bonds continuing to sell off despite central bank efforts, and predicts capital will flow into scarce assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, he shares his conviction that Bitcoin’s censorship-resistant nature is essential and that the technology provides a necessary check against a centralized system, a belief deeply rooted in his experience as a former U.S. Army Apache pilot.
Podcast. The Jack Mallers Show: Debt Spiral, The Third Mandate, and Bitcoin as Macro.
Summary: This episode of The Jack Mallers Show argues that the U.S. government is in an unsustainable debt spiral and is cutting interest rates for its own survival, a policy being financed at the expense of the public. Mallers discusses the Federal Reserve’s emerging “third mandate” as a quiet legalization of financial repression and yield curve control intended to cap bond yields to keep the government solvent. He highlights that despite rising tax receipts, the federal deficit continues to grow, demonstrating the system’s reliance on monetary expansion to avoid default. This fiscal strategy, he contends, has decimated the middle class, creating an extreme wealth gap where the top 1% now hold more wealth than the entire middle class, which results in a bleak outlook for the youth. Ultimately, Mallers asserts that Bitcoin is the “peaceful exit” from the failing fiat system, urging his audience to embrace it as the only way to protect their wealth and future.
tweets
(Substack blocking direct Twitter links at the moment)
https://x.com/gerovich/status/1970113694949671422
https://x.com/saylor/status/1970596121878950177
https://x.com/Ashcryptoreal/status/1970523453913694533
https://x.com/TonyTheBullCMT/status/1970503149090906476
https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/1970890567556210979
https://x.com/DigitalAssets/status/1971662310969077965
https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1971911114708734276
https://x.com/fiatarchive/status/1971847481714770424
https://x.com/LeomathHeart/status/1971953870419935617
https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1971972601460543677
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1972070600173932923
https://x.com/QuintenFrancois/status/1972110386255351817
https://x.com/decodejar/status/1970399308601323792
https://x.com/saylordocs/status/1971601212333326822
If you think we’ve missed something important, please send it to us and we’ll be sure to add it to next week’s newsletter… And please share!
