issue 261 - week of 10-10-25
curating the good stuff for the casual bitcoin enthusiast each week
Listen below for an succinct overview in podcast format of all items contained in this issue of the newsletter.
news
I used Google NotebookLM and Gemini to summarize the information in this week’s news links:
💰 As of October 2025, Bitcoin has matured significantly, driven by the “currency debasement trade” amid persistent government deficits, exemplified by the U.S.’s $37 trillion national debt, making sustained inflation inevitable and positioning Bitcoin and gold as top-performing safe-haven assets year-to-date for the first time. This macroeconomic shift signals the end of the post-1971 U.S. dollar monopoly, accelerating de-dollarization among BRICS nations and a move toward a multi-polar world where neutral reserves like gold (poised to surpass U.S. Treasuries at $5,500–$5,700/oz) and Bitcoin as “digital gold” gain prominence. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,160 with a $2.5 trillion market cap, supported by strong on-chain fundamentals: high holder conviction, organic accumulation, and low Google search interest indicating an early rally phase. Valuation models like the Bitcoin Everything Indicator suggest further upside, though volatility and potential corrections are expected in Q4.
🏦 Institutional and sovereign adoption has reached milestones, with ETFs and trusts holding 12.2% of Bitcoin’s supply, reinforced by Morgan Stanley advising 2–4% portfolio allocations and labeling it a scarce asset. Sovereign moves include Luxembourg’s 1% allocation to Bitcoin ETFs and U.S. proposals for a strategic reserve, while corporates like Square enable Bitcoin payments for 4 million merchants and hold 8,692 BTC on balance sheets. Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative store of value to productive infrastructure, with potential for Bitcoin-backed stablecoins to provide transparent global liquidity, yield generation via lending, and a geopolitical edge for the U.S. against China’s gold hoarding, potentially rendering the latter moot in a 10x–20x Bitcoin surge to gold parity.
⚠️ Despite the bullish outlook, challenges persist: internal debates over Bitcoin Core v30, pitting “spam” filters (e.g., Ordinals) against censorship resistance, risk fracturing the community and pushing harmful data encoding. External threats include political scapegoating in a currency crisis, bipartisan anti-privacy measures targeting tools and developers, and long-term quantum computing risks requiring complex migrations. Quotes from figures like Anthony Pompliano (”They are never going to stop printing money; therefore Bitcoin will never stop going up”) and Lyn Alden underscore the transformative potential, but analysts warn of consolidation and the need for cautious navigation in this new financial paradigm.
Bitcoin breaks below $120K after Trump’s ‘massive’ tariff threat to China.
Summary: rump’s announcement of a massive tariff hike on Chinese imports triggered broad sell-offs across risk assets, pushing Bitcoin’s price below $120,000. The tariff threat intensified tensions over China’s export controls on rare earth materials and also dragged down equities and other cryptocurrencies. Many leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during the sell-off, deepening the market’s decline. Despite the sharp drop, continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and sustained institutional interest remain supportive for the market longer term.
Link: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4503347-bitcoin-breaks-below-120k-after-trumps-massive-tariff-threat-to-china
Bitcoin’s On-Chain Strength Sets Stage for Fourth-Quarter Gains, Says Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest.
Summary: Based on analysis by Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, Bitcoin’s robust on-chain metrics suggest the cryptocurrency is poised for significant gains in the fourth quarter. The firm highlights a strong and growing base of long-term holders, which indicates conviction and reduced selling pressure. Key indicators like the illiquid supply and the relative dormancy of older coins point to a healthy market structure favoring an uptrend. Therefore, Ark Invest’s research suggests that the current on-chain behavior is setting the stage for BTC to appreciate as the year concludes.
Link: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/11/bitcoin-s-on-chain-strength-sets-stage-for-fourth-quarter-gains-says-cathie-wood-s-ark-invest
“Bitcoin Is The Pressure Valve”: Goldman Says Helicopter Money Is Back And Flowing Straight Into Assets.
Summary: This article highlights a warning from a top Goldman Sachs macro trader who claims that “helicopter money” has returned and is flowing directly into assets. The report describes Bitcoin as the “pressure valve,” positioning the cryptocurrency as the primary beneficiary and key indicator of monetary debasement caused by excess liquidity. This phenomenon is tied to political rhetoric, including statements from Donald J. Trump asserting the U.S. can “grow yourself out of that debt” and proposing a large “distribution” to the American people. The combined effect of these policies is an environment favoring asset inflation, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as the necessary escape mechanism from fiat currency devaluation.
Link: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-pressure-valve-goldman-says-helicopter-money-back-and-flowing-straight-assets
Morgan Stanley Advises Up to 4% Bitcoin Allocation in Portfolios.
Summary: Morgan Stanley released a new report advising clients to allocate a maximum of 2% to 4% of their portfolios to Bitcoin and other crypto assets, depending on their risk profile. The firm categorized Bitcoin as a scarce asset, comparing it to “digital gold,” and stated that it now holds a legitimate role in diversified investment strategies. Specifically, opportunistic growth portfolios were advised to include up to 4% in crypto, while balanced growth portfolios were capped at 2%. Morgan Stanley also recommended quarterly rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios to manage volatility and prevent overexposure during strong uptrends, suggesting clients gain exposure through exchange-traded products.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/morgan-stanley-advises-btc-allocation
How the Bitcoin Everything Indicator Improves Bitcoin Price Prediction.
Summary: The “Bitcoin Everything Indicator” is a unified model that enhances price prediction by merging macro, on-chain, and technical data points, addressing the shortcomings of models reliant on a single data type. Key inputs include global liquidity, miner expectations, on-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, and network utilization data, offering a multi-dimensional view of Bitcoin’s valuation. To adapt to a maturing market with increasing institutional participation and less extreme volatility, the model utilizes an improved 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score to maintain accuracy. Currently, the indicator suggests that Bitcoin remains below the overheated threshold, implying that there is still significant upside potential before approaching a cyclical top.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-prediction-indicator
Bitcoin Can Become the Backbone of the Global Economy.
Summary: The opinion piece argues that Bitcoin is now a mainstream, serious reserve asset held by public companies and governments, setting the stage for a deeper integration into global finance. Institutions, driven by the pressure to generate yield, will inevitably move from passively holding their Bitcoin to utilizing it as productive capital for lending and settlement. Bitcoin’s core attributes—fixed supply, borderless transferability, auditable public ledger, and lack of counterparty risk—make it a superior foundation for global liquidity compared to traditional reserve assets. This evolution will be significantly accelerated by the maturity of Bitcoin-backed stablecoins, which use BTC as collateral to offer needed liquidity without sacrificing the asset’s transparency and resilience.
Link: https://www.newsweek.com/bitcoin-can-become-the-backbone-of-the-global-economy-10861289
Square offers Bitcoin payments for merchants as crypto adoption accelerates.
Summary: Square, the payments processor owned by Block Inc., has launched a new service that enables its over four million U.S. merchants to accept Bitcoin (BTC) payments at the point of sale. This new feature aligns with CEO Jack Dorsey’s vision to advance Bitcoin’s use as a medium of exchange, as it allows merchants to automatically convert a portion of sales into BTC and store the asset in an integrated wallet. To encourage adoption, Square is waiving all processing fees through 2026, though a 1% transaction fee will take effect starting in 2027. This move is expected to significantly accelerate broader crypto adoption, capitalizing on the projected 82% growth in U.S. crypto payment usage by 2026.
Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/square-bitcoin-payments-merchants-crypto
Luxembourg sovereign wealth fund dips into Bitcoin ETFs with 1% stake.
Summary: Luxembourg’s Intergenerational Sovereign Wealth Fund (FSIL) has allocated 1% of its $900 million portfolio, approximately $9 million, into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This makes it one of the first European state-backed investment entities to directly invest in the asset class, signaling a recognition of its growing maturity and Luxembourg’s leadership in digital finance. The FSIL’s new investment policy, approved in July 2025, allows for up to 15% allocation to alternative investments, including crypto. However, to mitigate operational risks, the fund chose to gain exposure through Bitcoin ETFs rather than holding the cryptocurrency directly. This 1% allocation is viewed as a balanced step that highlights Bitcoin’s long-term potential while aligning with the fund’s specific profile and mission.
Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/luxembourg-sovereign-wealth-fund-invests-in-bitcoin-etfs
media
Podcast. BTC Sessions: “It’s Going To Be A Good Q4…” — Lyn Alden Year END Bitcoin Special.
Summary: This video features macro analyst Lyn Alden, who details the ongoing shift in global finance and offers her perspective on Bitcoin’s future. Alden asserts that the default process on bond and currency holders has already begun through debasement, making scarce assets like equities, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin the essential investment hedges. Looking forward, she predicts the next quarter will be favorable for Bitcoin due to a cleansing of market “froth” and strong on-chain metrics, such as a healthy market value relative to cost basis. She critiques the US dollar’s global reserve status, noting that while it offers a temporary “exorbitant privilege,” it forces structural deficits that have dangerously hollowed out the nation’s industrial base. Alden argues that there will be no single fiat replacement for the dollar; instead, the world is transitioning to a multipolar system with more bilateral trade agreements, featuring a greater role for neutral reserve assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Podcast. WiM: Smart Money is Selling Real Estate for Bitcoin w/ Terence Michael.
Summary: This discussion between Terence Michael and Robert Breedlove critiques the fiat monetary system, arguing that powerful institutions and governments are locked in a massive, debt-fueled cycle. Michael asserts that social issues like homelessness and high housing costs are a direct result of money printing and inflation, and he dismisses traditional real estate as a “hamster wheel” where ownership is perpetually subject to banks and taxation. The speakers criticize interventions like rent control, which they label as “Soviet style nonsense” that ultimately distorts the market and raises costs for most people. Furthermore, Michael, a filmmaker, proposes a strategy for independent film financing by incorporating a Bitcoin kicker—a portion of the budget held in Bitcoin—to use its appreciation to offset the film’s long-term costs. Fundamentally, they conclude that Bitcoin serves not as a transactional currency but as a superior form of savings and a necessary “insurance policy on uncertainty” against the systemic erosion of value.
CNBC. Bitcoiner SHOCKS TV Host On Bitcoin.
Summary: Anthony Pompliano outlines a compelling case for Bitcoin as the definitive savings technology in the face of ongoing currency debasement. He argues that the asset’s power lies in its simple narrative: because governments will never stop printing money, Bitcoin’s finite supply makes it an unavoidable appreciating hedge. Pompliano claims that Bitcoin has become the new market “hurdle rate,” noting that traditional assets like the S&P 500 have seen their returns fall significantly when measured against it. This price appreciation is structurally supported by the asset’s finite supply and the increasing rate of “illiquid supply,” where long-term investors are refusing to sell, driving prices up as new capital flows in. He clarifies that Bitcoin is not meant for transactions, instead serving as the digital world’s savings account, while stablecoins function as the checking account for spending.
Podcast. What Bitcoin Did: Bitcoin Core v30 Explained: Spam, Filters & the Knots Debate | Antoine Poinsot.
Summary: his video features a discussion with Bitcoin Core developer Antoine Poinsot about the controversies surrounding the Bitcoin Core v30 release, particularly the debates on transaction “spam” and the competing Knots node implementation. Poinsot clarified that while Core developers do not support non-financial uses like JPEGs on the chain, they oppose policy changes to censor them, arguing that such attempts would be futile and only push users to use more harmful, yet still consensus-valid, methods to record data. The specific v30 change involved removing an obsolete size limit on the OP_RETURN script to eliminate a “mal incentive” that was forcing emerging, legitimate use cases like BitVM to instead use less efficient and UTXO-bloating methods. He stressed that a major risk of running Knots is its single-developer governance, which results in significant code changes being shipped without the robust, multi-person security review and testing that Bitcoin Core rigorously enforces. Ultimately, Poinsot affirmed that Bitcoin Core development operates on technical neutrality and consensus, prioritizing the long-term resilience and security of the network for all users globally, not ideological or political agendas.
Podcast. Coin Stories: Global Currency Chess: Gold, Bitcoin and The U.S. Dollar with Matthew Pines.
Summary: The video “Global Currency Chess: Gold, Bitcoin and The U.S. Dollar” features a discussion between Natalie Brunell and Matthew Pines about the shifting landscape of global finance. They explore how the U.S. dollar maintains dominance but faces growing challenges from assets like gold and Bitcoin. Pines explains that Bitcoin’s fixed supply and resistance to censorship make it an increasingly appealing store of value. The conversation also touches on how governments and central banks might react to wider adoption of non-fiat assets. Overall, it portrays the global monetary system as a strategic “chess game” among competing forms of money.
Podcast. Unchained: The Bitcoin Core vs Knots Fight Asks What’s Worse: ‘Censorship’ or ‘Spam’?
Summary: his discussion, titled “The Bitcoin Core vs Knots Fight Asks What’s Worse: ‘Censorship’ or ‘Spam’?”, explores the conflict over data storage and network policy on the Bitcoin blockchain. The Bitcoin Knots position, represented by Chris Guida, views non-payment data from protocols like Ordinals and BRC20 as spam that crowds out payments, arguing that maintaining the current OP_RETURN filter is necessary and historically effective to discourage such activity. Conversely, the Bitcoin Core position, defended by Adam Back, holds that filters are futile against economically motivated spammers, who will simply be forced to use less efficient, more damaging methods to embed data. Core is proposing to lift the OP_RETURN limit to offer a less harmful, prunable location for data storage, thereby reducing the risk of bloat to the UTXO set, which is the least scalable part of running a Bitcoin node. The core disagreement is whether being hostile to spam through technical filters or being practical by offering a “less bad” option is the superior long-term strategy for Bitcoin’s health and decentralization.
Podcast. The Jack Mallers Show: Bitcoin All Time Highs & The End of the Dollar’s Monopoly.
Summary: This episode of The Jack Mallers Show celebrates Bitcoin’s all-time high, declaring that the asset’s surge signals “the end of the dollar’s monopoly” and the beginning of a new monetary era. Mallers contends that the U.S. government’s massive $37 trillion debt leaves it with no option but to “print what they owe,” leading to inflation and currency debasement. He argues that saving in Bitcoin is the optimal defense, demonstrating that the value of assets like the S&P 500 and real estate has fallen by over 80% when measured in BTC terms since the COVID-19 pandemic. This “dollar debasement trade” is going mainstream, evidenced by the fact that Bitcoin and gold are leading major asset returns for the first time in history. Finally, Mallers encourages viewers to adopt a Bitcoin lifestyle, concluding with updates that his company, Strike, is expanding its Bitcoin collateralized lending services to 21 countries across Europe.
tweets
(Substack blocking direct Twitter links at the moment)
https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1974931772740882815
https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1975113363253498051
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1975011913680466325
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1975211015206732084
https://x.com/therationalroot/status/1975223855951310951
https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1975213085234446705
https://x.com/_The_Prophet__/status/1975745771069956506
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1975942165768376377
https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1976259096174043431
https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/1976251057421647886
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1976307410017869881
https://x.com/OnChainCollege/status/1976640978837794959
https://x.com/btcjvs/status/1976682140877082702
https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1976716657398784006
https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1977049117286449193
https://x.com/0xdoug/status/1976850615621107743
https://x.com/LeomathHeart/status/1977099783035642308
https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/1977150869222076722
https://x.com/NorthstarCharts/status/1977120207241134150
https://x.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/1976080709686309217
https://x.com/Excellion/status/1977130632439369900
https://x.com/davthewave/status/1977159940071735767
https://x.com/The_JDK99/status/1977053858426740751
If you think we’ve missed something important, please send it to us and we’ll be sure to add it to next week’s newsletter… And please share!
