issue 263 - week of 10-24-25
curating the good stuff for the casual bitcoin enthusiast each week
Listen below for an succinct overview in podcast format of all items contained in this issue of the newsletter.
summary
🚀 Beyond the Hype: 4 Bitcoin Realities That Will Reshape Your View of the Future
🔄 Introduction: The Shifting Bitcoin Narrative
For over a decade, Bitcoin has been defined in the public consciousness as a volatile, speculative asset, a digital wild west governed by cycles of extreme hype and crushing fear. 📈 Price charts, 😂 memes, and 📰 dramatic headlines have dominated the conversation, obscuring a more significant story unfolding just beneath the surface.
While the market obsesses over daily fluctuations, a series of profound structural, technological, and geopolitical shifts are quietly converging. These forces are fundamentally altering Bitcoin’s role in the world, moving it far beyond the realm of simple speculation. This article will explore four of the most surprising and impactful of these new realities, moving beyond the price charts to reveal the deeper currents that are reshaping our financial future.
💀 1. Forget What You Know: The Four-Year Cycle Is Dead
For years, Bitcoin market analysis was dominated by the “four-year cycle,” a theory that tied the asset’s dramatic bull and bear markets to the predictable supply shock of its halving events. This model suggested a recurring pattern: a post-halving surge, a parabolic peak roughly 18 months later, and a subsequent crash, all repeating with near-clockwork regularity.
That model is now considered obsolete by a growing consensus of market analysts, including Jeff Ross of Vailshire Capital Management, who argue that Bitcoin’s price action is no longer dictated by its internal supply schedule 📅 but is instead primarily driven by 🌍 global liquidity conditions and broader business cycles 💰. This shift marks a significant maturation of the asset, integrating it more deeply with the traditional financial world.
As a result, the predictable market tops and bottoms of the past are unlikely to repeat in the same way. Analysts who once pointed to late 2025 for a cycle peak are now looking toward a strong performance in 2026, aligning Bitcoin’s trajectory with macroeconomic trends rather than its own programmatic calendar.
This isn’t just a technical detail; it’s a fundamental change in Bitcoin’s character. It signals a maturing asset that is increasingly integrated with the global financial system, responding to the same macroeconomic forces that move traditional markets. For investors, it means the old playbook is obsolete, and a new, more nuanced understanding of global finance is required.
🐋➡️🏦 2. The Great Irony: Bitcoin Whales Are Moving to Wall Street
In one of modern finance’s great ironies, the very asset designed to exist outside the traditional banking system is now being purposefully and efficiently absorbed by it. The long-held ethos of “not your keys, not your coins” is giving way to the practical realities of Wall Street infrastructure, driven by a new class of financial products.
The key mechanism is the approval of “in-kind” creations for spot Bitcoin ETFs. This allows large holders, or “whales,” to deposit their privately held Bitcoin directly into a fund in a tax-neutral exchange for ETF shares. 🥶 These digital assets, once secured in cold storage, become regulated, reportable holdings on standard brokerage statements. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has already processed over $3 billion in such conversions for its IBIT fund.
This institutional integration isn’t limited to ETFs, however. 🤝 JPMorgan, whose CEO Jamie Dimon has a long history of publicly criticizing Bitcoin, now plans to allow institutional clients to use their direct Bitcoin and Ether holdings as collateral for loans. Crucially, the bank would store the assets through a third-party custodian, a structure that reflects how traditional finance is managing risk as it builds this new institutional architecture. The move signals a dramatic reversal, acknowledging the growing demand for crypto-collateralized financial services. Dimon himself has moderated his stance, reflecting the shifting institutional tide with a fitting analogy.
🚬 “I don’t think we should smoke, but I defend your right to smoke... I defend your right to buy Bitcoin, go at it.”
This trend is profoundly impactful. Longtime holders are trading a degree of self-custody for the undeniable utility of the traditional financial system: simplified leverage, streamlined estate planning, and easier access to collateralized loans. It marks a major new phase of integration, where Bitcoin’s core properties are being leveraged within the very system it was created to bypass.
🤖🤝₿ 3. The New Engine: The AI Boom and Bitcoin Are Fusing into a Single Macro Trade
Two of the most powerful technological trends of our time are beginning to collide. ⚡ On one side is Artificial Intelligence (AI), a beast that devours electricity and silicon faster than any industry in history. On the other is Bitcoin, the only monetary network that converts raw megawatts into incorruptible value. This is not a loose narrative; it is a structural fusion based on shared infrastructure and real-world cash flows, a collision between exponential compute and exponential scarcity.
The core dynamic is simple: AI’s exponential growth is creating an insatiable demand for electricity, the same fundamental resource that Bitcoin mining monetizes and secures. 🎡 This shared dependency is creating a powerful economic flywheel that strengthens both ecosystems simultaneously.
The process unfolds in a reinforcing loop:
📈 The AI buildout drives energy prices higher.
💸 Bitcoin miners, who control large-scale, flexible power infrastructure, can either sell their energy to AI data centers for a premium or continue mining Bitcoin with much fatter profit margins.
💪 This increased profitability funds the expansion of more mining and energy infrastructure, which in turn hardens the Bitcoin network.
🛡️ Corporate CFOs in the AI industry, witnessing this direct link, begin acquiring Bitcoin as a treasury hedge against volatile energy costs and to benefit from the network’s growth.
⬆️ This wave of corporate buying vacuums up more of Bitcoin’s finite supply, putting sustained upward pressure on its price.
A higher Bitcoin price inflates the value of miners’ equity, allowing them to finance even more energy infrastructure, which can then serve both AI and Bitcoin mining needs.
To put this in perspective, analysts are projecting that AI infrastructure capital and operating expenditures will hit $200 billion per year by 2027. A conservative 5% treasury hedge against that spending would create $10 billion in fresh spot demand for Bitcoin every single year. This fusion reaction, built on concrete, transformers, and fiber, could become one of the most significant drivers of Bitcoin’s value over the next decade.
⚔️ 4. The Real Threat: The Fiat End-Game Is a Geopolitical Showdown, Not Just an Economic Theory
For years, Bitcoin proponents have pointed to spiraling national debt and consumer price inflation as the primary catalysts for a “fiat endgame.” While those forces remain potent, a far more immediate and powerful driver is now unfolding on the world’s geopolitical stage, underscored by a shocking reality: 🤯 the United States fired 25% of its best missile interceptors in just under two weeks, and at current production rates, it will take a decade to replace them.
This vulnerability is the result of a thesis gaining traction among market observers: 🏭 China is using its near-monopoly on rare earth minerals and its dominance as the world’s factory to effectively disarm the U.S. military-industrial complex. This strategic dependency has left the United States unable to produce its own advanced weaponry at the scale and speed required for modern conflict.
The consequence is that the U.S. is being forced into an emergency, multi-decade “wartime” re-industrialization effort to regain its strategic independence. This is no longer a fringe theory but an assessment echoed at the highest levels of traditional finance. As JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated:
🚨 “It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products, and manufacturing. All of which are essential for our national security... We need to act now.”
The financial impact of this shift cannot be overstated. This massive industrial policy, framed as an “operation warp speed” for national security, will require an unprecedented level of money printing—what analysts are now calling 🖨️💵 “wartime financing.” This flood of new liquidity, driven by geopolitical necessity, is precisely the kind of macroeconomic force that analysts now see as the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price, dwarfing the old halving cycles. It makes the argument for a scarce, sovereign, and neutral reserve asset more urgent and concrete than ever before.
💡 Conclusion: A New Era of Money
Bitcoin is no longer a static picture to be debated; it has become an active engine at the heart of the global financial, technological, and geopolitical landscape. Its price is now being shaped not by niche halving cycles, but by mature macroeconomic forces. Its custody is moving from private wallets to the institutional heart of Wall Street. Its value is becoming intertwined with the AI revolution through a shared foundation of energy. And its ultimate necessity is being underscored by urgent geopolitical imperatives that demand a new financial reality.
These are not future predictions; they are ⛰️ tectonic plates already in motion. They represent a fundamental rewiring of the connections between technology, finance, and global power. As these plates continue to shift, the question is no longer if Bitcoin will be part of the future, but how the future will be rebuilt on top of it.
news
After A Decade Of Bitching About Bitcoin... JPMorgan Reportedly Plans To Allow Crypto As Collateral.
Summary: Despite over a decade of public criticism regarding cryptocurrencies from CEO Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan is reportedly planning to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for loans by the end of the year. This potential offering would require clients’ crypto holdings to be stored through a third-party custodian. If confirmed, this development represents a major shift that could make the two leading cryptocurrencies more attractive to large investors, following the historic approval of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The bank has gradually increased its crypto involvement, having launched JPM Coin in 2020 and reporting that it holds shares in spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting its strategy is pivoting away from Dimon’s long-held skepticism.
Link: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/after-decade-bitching-about-bitcoin-jpmorgan-reportedly-plans-allow-crypto-collateral
Analysts Set $200,000 Bitcoin Price Target – Is It Realistic By Christmas?
Summary: Multiple investment analysts have set a $200,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2025, with firms like Bernstein calling the forecast “conservative” given current market dynamics. This bullish outlook is primarily driven by the “watershed moment” of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are expected to bring unprecedented structural demand from traditional capital pools. Analysts predict these ETFs could eventually hold about 15% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply by 2033, absorbing significant amounts of the asset. Furthermore, the forecast is underpinned by Bitcoin’s constrained supply following the latest Halving event, positioning the asset as a superior “store of value” alternative amid record U.S. debt and looming inflation threats.
Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-set-200-000-bitcoin-160000602.html
A Dip Below $100k “Seems Inevitable”, But StanChart Sees Bitcoin At $200k By Year-End.
Summary: Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick maintains a highly bullish outlook on Bitcoin, forecasting a year-end price of $200,000, with a bear-case scenario still placing it “well north of $150,000.” Despite this aggressive target, Kendrick suggests a near-term dip below $100,000 is “inevitable” following a recent sell-off, which he views as a temporary liquidation event. He advises investors to “stay nimble” and be ready to buy this potential dip, asserting it “may be the last time Bitcoin is EVER below 100k,” as he expects a strong rebound. The anticipated momentum will be driven by continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a rotation of capital from gold, which he notes recently outperformed Bitcoin but is now starting to reverse.
Link: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/dip-below-100k-seems-inevitable-stanchart-sees-bitcoin-200k-year-end
Japan Eyes Letting Banks Hold And Trade Bitcoin As Crypto Adoption Grows.
Summary: The Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) is reportedly considering major reforms to allow domestic banks to acquire and hold digital assets, including Bitcoin, for investment purposes. This move would reverse a conservative 2020 policy that prohibited banks from holding crypto due to concerns over volatility and financial stability. Under the proposed framework, banks would be able to trade digital assets similarly to stocks and bonds, with the FSA planning new safeguards and risk management protocols to mitigate the impact of price swings on banks’ balance sheets. This effort aims to create a safer environment for crypto investment, expand access to digital assets, and offer investors alternative avenues for returns amidst Japan’s significant economic challenges and high debt-to-GDP ratio.
Link: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/japan-eyes-letting-banks-hold-and-trade-bitcoin-crypto-adoption-grows
VanEck Mid-October 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck.
Summary: The VanEck Mid-October 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report characterized Bitcoin’s recent pullback as a liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset, not the start of a bear market. It highlighted that global M2 money supply growth continues to explain more than half of Bitcoin’s price variance, reaffirming its role as an anti-money printing asset. A flush of futures leverage, which peaked before an 18% price drawdown in early October, has now normalized, suggesting the market correction has created a buying opportunity. Furthermore, rising on-chain activity and strong revenue-to-price correlations among Layer-1 blockchains point to the maturation of the digital asset class.
Link: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-october-2025-bitcoin-chaincheck/
Bitcoin Whales Are Moving On-Chain Wealth Onto Wall Street Via BlackRock’s IBIT.
Summary: A quiet migration is occurring as Bitcoin’s wealthiest holders, often called whales, are moving their on-chain wealth from cold storage and self-custody onto Wall Street through traditional finance custodians. This shift is facilitated by the new “in-kind” mechanism for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which allows investors to deposit Bitcoin directly into a fund in exchange for shares without triggering a taxable event. By consolidating their holdings into regulated ETFs like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), investors instantly gain benefits such as making the asset easier to borrow against, pledge as collateral, or include in estate planning. BlackRock has already processed over $3 billion in these conversions, highlighting the irony of the anti-establishment asset now being absorbed and integrated into the traditional banking and brokerage systems.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-whales-are-moving-on-chain-wealth-onto-wall-street-via-blackrocks-ibit
Bitcoin’s First Major Layer-2 in Nearly a Decade Goes Live With Arkade.
Summary: Arkade has launched as the first significant Bitcoin Layer-2 (L2) solution since the Lightning Network nearly a decade ago, aiming to transform Bitcoin into a programmable financial platform. Developed by Ark Labs, the protocol enters public beta with a mission to enable advanced financial applications without compromising the base layer’s core security or censorship resistance. It introduces Arkade Assets, a native multi-asset framework designed to bring stablecoins and other tokens to Bitcoin, a capability long dominated by other blockchains. Technically, Arkade utilizes Virtual Transaction Outputs (VTXOs) for instant off-chain execution and batch settlement to compress thousands of operations, while preserving Bitcoin’s security by allowing users to always reclaim their funds on-chain.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/arkade-launches-as-bitcoin-layer-2
media
Podcast. The Pomp Podcast: Why Bitcoin’s Rally Is Just Getting Started.
Summary: The keynote interview features Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, who argues that the current stock market rally, fueled by Artificial Intelligence (AI), is far from a bubble, pointing out that top companies like Nvidia are trading at lower valuations than consumer staples. He dismisses skepticism, suggesting that the “most hated rally in human history” is largely due to political bias among institutional investors who tend to be bearish. Lee also highlights that the gold rally is bullish for Bitcoin, projecting a $1.6 to $2 million Bitcoin price within five years if it matches gold’s network value at $5,000.
Podcast. The Investor’s Podcast: Bitcoin Mastermind Q3 2025 w/ Joe Carlasare, Jeff Ross, & American HODL (BTC252).
Summary: This video presents a high-energy dance fitness choreography routine by FitDance set to the popular song “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” by Justin Timberlake from the Trolls soundtrack. Instructors lead participants through a series of fun and easy-to-follow steps designed as a lively group workout. The class features upbeat movements that combine traditional aerobics with modern street dance styles. The routine is crafted to be accessible to all fitness levels, encouraging viewers to enjoy the music while getting a full-body workout. Ultimately, this video serves as an engaging way to learn a new dance and experience the joy of movement.
Podcast. Coin Stories: Bitcoin Will Power the Internet of Money and Tokenize Real World Assets with David Marcus.
Summary: David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark and former PayPal and Meta executive, discusses his mission to focus on Bitcoin’s utility as a medium of exchange by building an open, decentralized payments infrastructure. Lightspark developed Spark, a new Layer 2 network that is backward-compatible with the Lightning Network but offers greater scalability for billions of wallets, allowing real-time, low-cost movement of both Bitcoin and stablecoins. Marcus clarifies that Bitcoin acts as an invisible, neutral settlement layer—similar to TCP/IP for data—facilitating ultra-competitive fiat-to-fiat transfers and cross-border remittances in the background. He emphasizes that building stablecoins on Bitcoin is crucial, noting that Spark’s design provides a more trustless settlement rail, with the unique ability for users to unilaterally exit their funds to the secure Bitcoin Layer 1 blockchain. Looking ahead, Marcus predicts that Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold in market capitalization and evolve into the undisputed “internet of money,” serving as the core settlement layer for global finance, AI agents, and the tokenization of real-world assets.
Podcast. Market Disruptors: Michael Saylor - The Blueprint for A New Financial System.
Summary: Michael Saylor discusses how the rise of Bitcoin represents a technological shift, arguing that the only “losers” are the antiquated 20th-century oligopolies selling inferior credit instruments. He emphasizes that to truly understand Bitcoin, one must grasp engineering, thermodynamics, and systems stability, highlighting the strategic ignorance of skeptics and cynics. Saylor criticizes the current capital markets as ineffective, noting that millions of companies lack bank accounts and access to capital while a few public companies control all the attention. He characterizes Bitcoin-based credit instruments as a superior alternative, capable of yielding stable, high returns for investors and pensioners, potentially quadrupling retirement income. Ultimately, he sees the adoption of Bitcoin as an inevitable progression of the human race toward a better financial system, replacing obsolete models like the car replaced the horse and buggy.
Podcast. WiM: Bitcoin & the END of Bankers’ Wars w/ Kevin Kelly.
Summary: This video argues that global conflicts are often “bankers’ wars” fueled by a fundamentally broken debt cycle, necessitating a reset in how value is exchanged, with Bitcoin offering the path to a new, brighter future. Drawing on his experience from combat deployments, the guest critiques the never-ending nature of modern wars, questioning the purpose and criticizing the industrial complex that is continually profiting from conflict. The conversation pivots to personal anecdotes, including stories of childhood fistfights and how the guest earned his Bitcoin call sign “Puncher,” despite claiming he is not a fighter. He recounts his role as the acting CEO of the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship (BKFC), detailing his efforts to help legalize the sport and its evolution into a professional platform for elite athletes. Concluding on a positive note, the guest expresses deep gratitude for Bitcoin and the hosts’ work in educating the public, inviting listeners to join his spaces on X (formerly Twitter) to learn more.
BTC in DC: Jeff Booth’s Keynote Address.
Summary: Jeff Booth’s keynote addresses the conflict between the current system of control and the emerging system of freedom, arguing that the chaos people feel is their energy contributing to one of these two systems. He states that the natural state of a free market is deflation, which is incompatible with a credit-based system that must exponentially increase debt and manipulate time to survive, creating a cognitive dissonance. Booth highlights that exponential productivity gains from technology like AI should lead to increasing abundance for everyone, but the credit-based system centralizes these gains, making a control system necessary. He presents Bitcoin as an open, decentralized, and secure protocol—not just an asset—that imposes the first truly free market, an “infinite game” in contrast to the current system’s “zero-sum game.” The speaker concludes by sharing his personal journey of transitioning his time and energy into the Bitcoin ecosystem after realizing he was a hypocrite, emphasizing that the network grows as individuals move their time and energy to this new system of freedom and abundance.
Swan Bitcoin: Can the AI Boom Push Bitcoin to $1M?
Summary: The video posits that two exponential growth curves—Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Bitcoin—are colliding, creating a powerful economic synergy. The AI boom is driving massive, rapidly doubling demand for electricity and silicon, while Bitcoin is the only monetary network that verifiably converts raw megawatts into incorruptible value. Bitcoin miners, who already control flexible, high-density power infrastructure, can now arbitrage capacity, renting power to AI workloads when prices spike and hashing harder when prices are low. This infrastructure synergy, combined with an ongoing corporate migration of treasury assets into Bitcoin, creates a self-reinforcing flywheel that will tighten the Bitcoin supply dynamics. Analysts project AI infrastructure spending to hit $200 billion annually by 2027, and even a conservative 5% treasury hedge of that spend would vaporize half of the new annual Bitcoin issuance, creating a “supply shock” and vacuum effect on price.
Podcast. Unchained: Between Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks, and the USD, Where Is the Best Value?
Summary: Investment manager Lawrence Lepard is extremely bullish on Bitcoin, predicting the asset will hit $150,000 within six months and could potentially reach $400,000 in the next 18 months, arguing it is a superior form of sound money compared to gold. He passionately critiques the current economic structure as a “broken Keynesian fiat system” that he calls “crony capitalism,” arguing the control of money by the Federal Reserve is unfairly benefiting the government, bankers, and the wealthy at the expense of the average American. Lepard warns that the US is headed toward a currency crisis due to a “debt doom loop,” where growing deficits increase interest costs, which in turn necessitates more debt and money printing, inevitably leading to the system’s collapse. He argues that a Bitcoin standard offers a way to fix the problem, believing sound money would effectively “defund war” by making it impossible for governments to finance expensive military actions without the direct consent of the populace. Regarding his personal portfolio, he is heavily weighted 70/30 toward Bitcoin over gold, viewing Bitcoin as the “fastest horse in the race” with greater asymmetric upside, though he still holds gold for protection against debasement for less volatile savings.
tweets
(Substack blocking direct Twitter links at the moment)
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1980285024508510564
https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/1980295912481255435
https://x.com/FrankAFetter/status/1980282581644939497
https://x.com/BitcoinMagPro/status/1980261965634187268
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1980360731796344911
https://x.com/davidmarcus/status/1980360052000321570
https://x.com/bramk/status/1980147607197331600
https://x.com/IIICapital/status/1980647659976421529
https://x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1980661894294978798
https://x.com/MerlijnTrader/status/1980922076954599532
https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/1980986483474608624
https://x.com/BTCTN/status/1981009596404891692
https://x.com/JamesEastonUK/status/1981307110823452692
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1981830275593351644
https://x.com/mikealfred/status/1982064412463911102
https://x.com/Excellion/status/1982032988385747181
https://x.com/AdamBLiv/status/1982039448847302770
https://x.com/seth_fin/status/1982067871674196141
https://x.com/BitcoinNews21M/status/1981979038429167918
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1982151468040781831
https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/1982386620189082012
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