issue 265 - week of 11-7-25
curating the good stuff for the casual bitcoin enthusiast each week
Listen below for an succinct overview in podcast format of all items contained in this issue of the newsletter.
summary
🐻🐮The Most Bearish Bull Market Ever? Four Reasons Smart Money Disagrees🐻🐮
📉 The Great Disconnect
There is a mood of anxiety and frustration in the Bitcoin market. Despite a seemingly “risk-on” environment where assets like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold are near all-time highs, Bitcoin has pulled back from its recent peak of $\sim\$126,000$ and entered a period of consolidation. For many, this has created a palpable cognitive dissonance. The price is now trading sideways around a new $100,000 plateau, and the successful launch of spot ETFs and growing institutional adoption have not delivered the parabolic run many expected.
🤔 This disconnect has left many retail investors exhausted and bearish. But what if this frustrating price action isn’t a sign of weakness, but a signal of a profound market shift and a deeply bullish setup? This post will explore four counter-intuitive takeaways from market experts that paint a very different, and much more optimistic, picture of what’s really happening.
Takeaway 1: Bitcoin is Having its ‘IPO Moment’ — And That’s a Good Thing
💼 Market commentators like Jordi Visser and Anthony Pompliano have described the current phase as Bitcoin’s “IPO Moment.” For the first time in its history, the massive, liquid demand from institutional players—channeled through ETFs from firms like BlackRock—is allowing very early Bitcoin holders (“OGs”) to realize some of their life-changing wealth.
💰 This isn’t a panic sell; it’s a natural distribution phase. It is akin to early employees and venture capitalists of a tech company selling a portion of their shares after a successful IPO. It is a sign of maturity and success, not failure. What is truly remarkable is that the price has managed to hold firm above $100,000 despite this massive, sustained selling pressure. Long-term holders have sold over 400,000 BTC in the last 30 days alone, yet this historic supply has been successfully absorbed by new institutional demand.
“Bitcoin is having its IPO moment and the whole idea is that you have the early holders of Bitcoin who are dispersing that Bitcoin into the market and there has been billions and billions and billions of dollars of sales of Bitcoin coming from those early holders yet the Bitcoin price is still at $100,000.”
🤝 This distribution is fundamentally healthy for the network. It’s a transfer of Bitcoin from a highly concentrated group of early adopters into stronger, more diversified institutional hands, creating a more robust and stable foundation for the future.
Takeaway 2: The Four-Year Cycle is Dead. Long Live the Macro Cycle.
🗓️ For years, the Bitcoin market has been defined by the “four-year cycle,” a theory that tied bull markets directly to the predictable four-year mining reward “halving.” This event would cut the new supply of Bitcoin in half, creating a supply shock that reliably kicked off a new price surge.
🌎 However, many experts, such as Lyn Alden, now believe this model is becoming obsolete. The new supply from mining is now a “negligible” or “much smaller component” of the market compared to the vast amount of existing Bitcoin available to trade. Bitcoin’s price is now primarily driven by factors of global macroeconomics: global liquidity, fiscal policy (government deficits), central bank actions (interest rates), and regulatory developments. In short, Bitcoin is now trading less on its internal schedule and more like the “macro asset that it is.”
⏳ This is a significant and counter-intuitive shift. It explains why this cycle feels so different and why many analysts believe it will be “longer than expected.” The old rules and timelines no longer apply, which is confusing market participants who are still looking at the old clock.
“...the last couple cycles it was kind of a blend of the having cycle and the liquidity cycle and so as basically we have the kind of the importance of one declining to the point where it’s almost negligible now and then those other factors kind of gradually increasing in prominence as they affect Bitcoin’s price...”
Takeaway 3: Retail is Exhausted, but Institutions are Just Getting Started
😔 The current market sentiment has been dubbed the “most bearish bull market ever.” Data from Lunar Crush reveals that retail sentiment is the “lowest and most bearish it has like almost ever been.” Similarly, the CIO of Bitwise, a major crypto asset manager, stated that retail investors are at “maximum desperation.”
📈 This retail exhaustion stands in stark contrast to the quiet but persistent institutional demand. The same Bitwise CIO noted that financial advisors are “still excited to allocate” to the asset class. Major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan have set bullish price targets, with one recent forecast targeting $170,000 in the next six to twelve months. BlackRock, in its own filings, has also reiterated its bullish long-term outlook.
🦉 This dynamic presents a classic “smart money” vs. crowd behavior scenario. While retail investors are being washed out by the frustrating sideways price action, large pools of institutional capital are methodically using this period as an accumulation phase.
“JP Morgan is more bullish on Bitcoin than Bitcoin Twitter is on Bitcoin.”
🧱 The nature of the primary buyer is shifting from short-term retail speculators to long-term institutional allocators. This suggests that a higher and far more stable price floor is being built, one supported by the deepest pockets in the financial world.
Takeaway 4: The Financial System’s Plumbing is Clogged, and the Fed is About to Open the Floodgates
🚨 Beyond Bitcoin’s internal dynamics, the broader macroeconomic picture reveals a traditional financial system showing serious signs of strain. In simple terms, several key indicators are flashing red. The reverse repo facility, a key tool for absorbing excess cash, is nearly empty. The Treasury General Account (TGA) has grown excessively due to the government shutdown, sucking liquidity out of the system. In response, key funding rates in the repo market have begun to spike.
🛑 These are serious red flags indicating that the system is starved of liquidity. This pressure is forcing the Federal Reserve to end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy, where it had been shrinking its balance sheet to fight inflation.
🗣️ Fed Chair Jerome Powell has explicitly acknowledged these pressures, noting they are similar to what occurred in late 2019—right before the Fed was forced to unleash a massive liquidity injection to prevent a market seizure.
“...reserves as a share of GDP stood near 8% of GDP in early 2019 prior to the acute funding pressures that emerged later that year.”
🌊 The implication for Bitcoin is massive. Market experts believe the Fed has “no choice” but to pivot back to money printing (Quantitative Easing, or QE) in the near future. This impending wave of liquidity is widely viewed as the primary catalyst that will fuel Bitcoin’s next major bull run.
Conclusion: The End of the Beginning
🌟 The current market frustration is masking a series of deeply bullish developments. The price action isn’t a sign of weakness but of maturation (the IPO moment). The old rules have changed as Bitcoin becomes a macro asset (the end of the four-year cycle). The buyers are stronger and have a longer time horizon (the rise of institutions). And a massive macro tailwind is building as the traditional financial system creaks under its own weight (the inevitable Fed pivot).
🚀 As Jack Mallers recently titled an episode, this period may be best understood as “The End of the Beginning” for Bitcoin—the final phase of its infancy before it becomes a fully mature global asset. Given the pressures building in the traditional financial system, the question may no longer be if Bitcoin will rally, but rather how profoundly it will reshape the financial landscape when the floodgates of liquidity finally open.
news
Institutions Stay Bullish on Bitcoin as Retail Capitulates: Bitwise CIO Sees Crypto Rally Ahead.
Summary: Despite the recent market turbulence that saw Bitcoin briefly dip below $100,000, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan suggests the crypto market is nearing a bottom. Hougan notes that retail investor sentiment has reached “maximum desperation” following months of liquidations and market stress. In contrast, institutional investors and financial advisors remain optimistic about allocating capital to the asset class due to its strong long-term returns. Separately, Senator Cynthia Lummis continues to advocate for the integration of digital assets into the U.S. banking system, urging community banks to embrace custody and management of crypto. Hougan believes this divergence means institutional demand will soon take the lead, possibly fueling a year-end rally after the current retail “wash out” concludes.
Link: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/institutions-stay-bullish-on-crypto
JP Morgan Reveals Huge Bitcoin Bet As It Predicts A $3.5 Trillion Price Boom.
Summary: JPMorgan analysts have turned decidedly bullish on Bitcoin, predicting that the cryptocurrency could sharply rise to hit around $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months. This optimistic forecast is based on the belief that a massive deleveraging phase, which cleared excess market leverage following recent sell-offs, is now largely complete. The bank’s model compares Bitcoin to “digital gold,” arguing that its improving volatility ratio compared to gold means it is trading significantly below its risk-adjusted fair value. Mechanically, this comparative analysis implies Bitcoin’s market capitalization could expand from its current $2.1 trillion to over $3.5 trillion, which underpins the $170,000 price target.
Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/11/08/jpmorgan-reveals-huge-bitcoin-bet-as-it-predicts-a-35-trillion-price-boom/
Strategy Announces Pricing of STRE Perpetual Preferred Stock
Summary: Strategy Inc. announced the pricing of its initial public offering of 7,750,000 shares of 10.00% Series A Perpetual Stream Preferred Stock (STRE). The shares were priced at €80.00 per share, leading to estimated net proceeds of approximately €608.8 million (or $702.2 million). Strategy intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for general corporate purposes, primarily including the acquisition of more Bitcoin. The STRE Stock will accumulate cumulative dividends at a fixed annual rate of 10.00% on a stated amount of €100 per share, payable quarterly.
Link: https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-pricing-of-strc-perpetual-preferred-stock_07-25-2025
BlackRock Reaffirms Bullish Bitcoin Stance Amid Price Stagnation.
Summary: BlackRock is maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin as a strategic asset, despite recent price stagnation around the $100,000 level. In a recent SEC filing, the asset manager emphasized that Bitcoin’s enduring relevance is driven by rapid global network adoption, increasing liquidity, and the declining credibility of traditional monetary systems. BlackRock’s own iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been instrumental in institutional involvement, boasting over $80 billion in assets under management and outpacing inflows of competing Bitcoin ETFs. Ultimately, the firm sees Bitcoin as a vital global monetary alternative and a strategic hedge that is accelerating in value faster than its current price suggests.
Link: https://bitbo.io/news/blackrock-bitcoin-bullish-stance/
Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Can Still Reach $150,000 By Year End Despite “Uptober” Flop.
Summary: According to Lee, Bitcoin’s rally has acted as a precursor for broader equity markets, signaling a strong risk appetite. Lee’s latest bullish thesis is heavily dependent on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, specifically expected rate cuts. He suggests that since cryptocurrencies are “super-sensitive to monetary policy,” Fed easing would rapidly drive money into Bitcoin. In an ultra-bullish scenario spurred by significant rate cuts, Lee forecasts that Bitcoin could “easily” hit a price of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tom-lee-says-bitcoin-still-003049716.html
media
Podcast. What Bitcoin Did: Why Bitcoin’s Bull Market Isn’t Over | Rational Root.
Summary: The video features Rational Root analyzing the recent correction in Bitcoin’s price, arguing that the bull market is not over but is likely lengthening beyond the traditional four-year cycle. Root attributes the sell-off, which dropped the price near $100,000, to a “compounding effect” of long-term holders taking profits due to increased market liquidity, which he views as a positive IPO moment for Bitcoin’s maturity. Unlike previous cycles, this bull market has been characterized by more gradual institutional adoption rather than retail hype, which has resulted in less overvaluation and suggests a less severe future correction. Analysis of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ correlation suggests Bitcoin is currently undervalued and is still trading as a risk-on asset rather than a hedge like gold. While the price drop broke the three-year bull market structure, Root remains cautiously bullish, anticipating a healthy consolidation phase and long-term continuation toward the vision of Bitcoin as a world reserve asset.
Podcast. Unchained: Bitcoin Crashed Below $100K, But Smart Money Is Buying the Dip.
Summary: This episode of Unchained features a discussion with Yan Alamman of Glass Node and Joe Vazani of Lunar Crush, analyzing the sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin and the overall crypto market volatility. Vazani suggests the price could fall below $100,000, linking the sell-off to the unwinding of the D.A.T. trade, ETF outflows, and increased selling pressure from companies that hold Bitcoin. Alamman views Bitcoin’s behavior as a macro asset, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties like the US government shutdown, yet he points to on-chain data indicating a strong pattern of underlying accumulation by smart money. The conversation delves into the lingering psychological impact of the massive October 10th liquidations, which has made traders cautious and highlighted the need for better market infrastructure like circuit breakers in the crypto space. Despite the current bearish environment and downward price momentum, both guests ultimately predict that a blowoff top and a new all-time high for Bitcoin are still the most likely outcome for the cycle.
Podcast. Swan Bitcoin: Bitcoin Crash or Bull Run Setup? With Lyn Alden
Summary: The discussion on Swan Signal Live, featuring Lyn Alden, focused on Bitcoin’s recent price stagnation and whether the current dip marks the end of the bull market or merely a weak phase of the cycle. Alden asserted that while the market has been flat for about 12 months, the bull run is likely to extend, pointing out that current financial metrics differ significantly from the metrics seen at the cycle peak in 2021. She explained that as the asset matures, the Bitcoin halving cycle is becoming negligible, and price is increasingly driven by large-scale macroeconomic factors like liquidity, interest rates, and fiscal policy, causing it to trade more like a mega-cap tech stock. The short-term price pressure is attributed to factors like the fill of the Treasury General Account (TGA) and a lack of retail investor participation due to broader economic malaise and low consumer sentiment. Finally, the speakers discussed the current rotation of coins, seeing it as “Bitcoin’s IPO moment” where long-term holders are healthily distributing their supply into a more widely held market.
Podcast. Tone Vays: Bitcoin Knots vs Core v30 - Part IV w/ Murch.
Summary: This episode is the fourth installment of the “Knots vs Core version 30” series, hosted by Tone Vays and Jimmy Song, featuring developer Murch to explain the Bitcoin Core team’s perspective on the latest code changes. Murch clarifies technical aspects, such as witness data and its discount due to only needing to be read once for transaction validation. A central point of the Core team’s policy is to encourage protocol developers to use OP_RETURN for adding data to the blockchain instead of utilizing the UTXO set, which is deemed less harmful to the network. The conversation delves into the public reaction and controversy surrounding recent mempool policy changes, especially after transactions were seen bypassing the public mempool to appear directly in mined blocks, raising concerns about censorship resistance. The hosts conclude by discussing the value of productive video discussions over social media arguments and tease an upcoming episode that will address the more controversial topic of using the Bitcoin blockchain for non-financial transactions.
CNBC. There’s a reckoning happening across both bitcoin and Wall Street, says Anthony Pompliano.
Summary: Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, discusses the “reckoning” occurring as Wall Street realizes that Bitcoin is a permanent fixture, while the crypto community recognizes that Wall Street prefers stability over extreme volatility. He suggests that Bitcoin’s reduced volatility is actually a positive for its growth, as it opens the market to large capital pools, despite the initial “boring” sentiment for early investors. Pompliano argues that Bitcoin’s primary role remains as a “digital gold” or store of value, with stablecoins more effectively filling the need for a medium of exchange because people prefer to spend an asset they believe will depreciate (the dollar) rather than appreciate (Bitcoin). The discussion addresses Bitcoin’s correlation with the NASDAQ, framing the current phase as an “IPO moment” where early holders are dispersing Bitcoin to a persistent bid from the traditional financial system. Ultimately, he predicts the concept of “crypto” will eventually be dead, as it will become so intertwined with traditional finance that people will simply refer to it as “finance,” indicating the industry’s maturation.
Podcast. The Jack Mallers Show: Bitcoin - The End Of The Beginning.
Summary: This episode argues that Bitcoin is rapidly exiting its infancy stage due to major milestones like the launch of ETFs and accelerating corporate and nation-state adoption. Mallers suggests that a post-ETF world signals the end of being “early” and heralds the beginning of the end for the existing fiat financial system. He addresses the current “brutal” sentiment in the community over the price consolidating sideways, which is frustrating many newer participants despite positive external factors. He attributes this market stagnation to what is being called “Bitcoin’s IPO moment,” where early, long-term holders are finally able to realize and distribute their wealth with significant liquidity. Ultimately, Mallers maintains his strong long-term conviction, asserting that the volatility is a normal part of Bitcoin’s journey and encouraging the community to continue building and saving.
tweets
(Substack blocking direct Twitter links at the moment)
https://x.com/AdamBLiv/status/1984953647755915460
https://x.com/HODL15Capital/status/1984698840428036264
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1986255045269332286
https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1986217278304559227
https://x.com/wacy_time1/status/1986748582708523115
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1986982347745775874
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1986954808193130849
https://x.com/BitcoinNews21M/status/1986916575795159233
https://x.com/CryptosR_Us/status/1987150682869141660
https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/1986878902220791856
https://x.com/UTXOTimes/status/1986939219709923514
https://x.com/RealJimChanos/status/1987153597079949732
https://x.com/jvisserlabs/status/1987513002719838385
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