issue 55 - week of 10-31-21
curating the good stuff for the casual bitcoin enthusiast each week
news
A Framework for Valuing Bitcoin.
https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/valuing-bitcoin/
Why Your Adviser Might Start Talking Up Bitcoin.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-your-adviser-might-start-talking-up-bitcoin-11634914812
Goldman Sachs is giving hedge fund clients crypto research from data firm The Block.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/29/goldman-sachs-is-giving-hedge-fund-clients-crypto-research-from-data-firm-the-block.html
U.S. regulators exploring how banks could hold crypto assets - FDIC chairman.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-regulators-exploring-how-banks-could-hold-crypto-assets-fdic-chairman-2021-10-26/
China is thinking about unbanning bitcoin mining after price rise and started a new research.
https://digesttime.com/2021/10/24/china-is-thinking-about-unbanning-bitcoin-and-started-a-new-research/
U.S. Takes Bitcoin Mining Crown After China Crackdown.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-takes-bitcoin-mining-crown-after-china-crackdown-11635327002
Bakkt stock soars more than 100% on news of its crypto partnership with Mastercard.
https://fortune.com/2021/10/25/crypto-bakkt-stock-soars-mastercard-partnership/
The Madness of QE.
https://bitcoinmoonboy.wixsite.com/bitcoinblog/post/the-madness-of-qe
ASIC gives trading of Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs green light.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/asic-gives-trading-of-bitcoin-ethereum-etfs-green-light-20211029-p594ea.html
Indian government is reportedly considering regulating crypto as a commodity.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/indian-government-is-reportedly-considering-regulating-crypto-as-a-commodity
Lightning use will outpace capacity growth.
https://www.research.arcane.no/blog/lightning-use-vs-public-capacity
How Bitcoin Hedges both Inflation and Deflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/how-bitcoin-hedges-both-inflation-and-deflation
media
Digital Assets Council of Finance Professionals. Why All Institutional Investors Will Own Bitcoin.
Podcast. What Bitcoin Did: The Bitcoin Bull Market Phase 2 with Willy Woo.
Podcast. Blockworks/Forward Guidance: The Unwinding of the Long Term Debt Cycle | Lyn Alden.
tweets
Central banks have no other option today in 2021 but to print money, it's only maths.
Here's some ''simple grade 11 maths'' from @FossGregfoss that shows the issue with these unsustainably high debt levels.
10/
@skwp People often view bitcoin as a speculation when in reality, a self-custodied asset that can be sent anywhere globally in an hour with no centralized third party, or brought through an airport on a phone or in one's mind, is insurance.
Global savings.
Bitcoin's Proof of Work architecture creates Seven Layers of Security and serves as the foundation for the world's first & greatest digital monetary network.
A framework from the mind of @saylor...
An absolute gigathread [1/52]👇
#Bitcoin's hash rate recovery since China 🇨🇳 decided to ban mining is a thing of beauty
7 consecutive positive difficulty adjustments since the bottom, with an 8th one coming up this week (in 359 blocks) 🔥
With @nayibbukele's most recent "bought the dip" tweet, El Salvador now reportedly holds 1,120 #BTC. Using the timestamps of his previous tweets as a proxy, I've estimated that El Salvador has an average cost basis of around $52.7k per #bitcoin.
"It's undeniable that #bitcoin's positioning as a store of value as alternative to gold is very very strong and wildly accepted," @cryptocom CEO @Kris_HK.
Grayscale expects a spot #Bitcoin ETF to be approved by the SEC before July 2022.
c: @EricBalchunas at Bloomberg
We've been tracking the macro price reversal since summer using on-chain. Now what clues can it provide us in our effort to identify the macro price peak over the coming months?
First we'll start with behavioral trends and then everyone's favorite, price targets.
[THREAD 1/22]
#BTC's price is tracking the BLX Model, which projects a cycle peak price of $340K in Dec 2021.
Overlaying the Nov & Dec BTC fractals of 2013 & 2017 on the chart, we can see that the '13 one hits the projected peak almost perfectly while the '17 one stops at $270K.
2peat 2013?
1/ PlanB's @100trillionUSD S2F (stock to flow) model of #Bitcoin price is dimensionally incorrect.
In this thread I formulate a dimensionally-correct variation by incorporating the M2 money supply and velocity M2V.
The resuting S2F-M2 model is:
BTC/M2 = 4.47e-6*(S2F*M2V)^3.28
1/16
The market is pricing in a far more aggressive response to inflation than economist or the Fed currently envision.
This matters are the market is major voice in setting policy. It is sending a powerful message.
A thread to explain.
Absolutely huge.
The Korea Teacher's Credit Union, which manages $47 billion, is investing in Bitcoin, as per local reports.
The boom of institutional money into crypto.
In terms of the structural US trade deficit, it's often said that the US exports paper to get real goods. We give the rest of the world dollars, and they give us commodities, consumer goods, etc.